Expectations were high going into the first Presidential Debate on domestic policy on October 3rd. Supporters of Barack Obama hoped that the debate would help the President open an even greater lead over challenger Mitt Romney, while New Jersey Governor Chris Christie predicted that the forum would result in the race being “turned upside down” in Romney’s favor.
After the debate, Brendan Spearing ’14 seemed to agree with Governor Christie. He said, “I think Romney won the debate, but I think that’s because Barack got flustered and thrown off his game when Romney said that he wasn’t going to change the tax rate for high income individuals. That’s a very different stance from what he’s said in the past.”
Regardless of the reason, the general consensus is that Mitt Romney bested the President. According to a CNN/ORC International poll taken following the debate, 67 percent of debate watchers thought that Romney won the debate, while only 25 percent said Obama performed best.
CNN polling director Keating Holland noted, “No presidential candidate has topped 60 percent in that question since it was first asked in 1984.”
Another telling statistic is the fact that 35 percent of those polled said the debate made them more likely to vote for Mitt Romney, compared to only 18 percent who said they were more likely to reelect Barack Obama as a result of his debate performance.
However, while the CNN poll seems to indicate growing support for Mitt Romney, it is important to remember that the numbers only reflect the opinion of those who watched the debate, a sample size of approximately 67.2 million viewers.
Howie Rosas ’14 wonders if this pool of viewers reflects a more national opinion of the presidential candidates. He said, “The polls clearly show that Mitt Romney won the debate, but it will be interesting to see if his popularity increases among those who didn’t see the debate. If it has, then that’s a very good sign for his campaign.”
So, did Romney’s debate performance translate into more general support for his candidacy? According to Gallup Daily tracking, in the week prior to the debate Obama led Romney by between 4 and 6 percentage points in terms of registered voters who would vote for him if the election were held today. Following the debate, Obama’s lead was narrowed to only 3 percentage points, with the President leading 49 percent to Romney’s 46 percent.
These numbers seem to bode well for Mitt Romney, but many wonder if he will continue to increase his popularity with voters. John Lobo ’14 is unsure, but remarked, “If Romney can win the next two debates, or at least continue to perform well, then the race may be closer than most believed. It will all come down to the next few weeks, though. A lot can still happen before election day.”
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