Dead even.
The last thing that Christopher Shays, the 11-term United States Congressman who resides in Bridgeport, was thinking when he defeated Diane Farrell to capture a 10th consecutive re-election Nov. 6, 2006 was how he was going to win re-election in 2008. But now it is on his mind, very much on his mind.
After further drops in President George W. Bush’s approve polls and a failing economy, people in Connecticut may be looking for change.
Enter Democratic challenger and businessman Jim Himes. Once again, Shays has found himself in a fight for his political life, trying to remain the only Republican member of the House of Representatives from New England.
Just as was the case heading down the stretch of his 2006 battle with Farrell, Shays finds himself in a dead heat with Himes. The latest UConn/Hearst Newspapers poll, released on Oct. 21, shows that 44 percent of voters support Shays and Himes respectively, with another 10 percent undecided and two percent supporting the two third-party candidates.
Himes, a former Goldman Sachs vice president and Harvard graduate has run a sound campaign, but is still up for a difficult final few weeks. He just has to ask Farrell about how things can change in just a matter of days.
Meanwhile, Shays is no stranger to defending his congressional seat. Of the five Connecticut districts, the fourth district, which includes Fairfield, is the only to vote Republican. But that has not stopped state Democrats from attacking Shays. Farrell came close in the past two elections, losing by three percent of the vote and five percent the past two elections.
Those elections were closer than expected because of his party line views which corresponded with Bush, along with a strong support for the war in Iraq.
In 2008, he once again finds himself running from the president, this time with a companion, presidential hopeful John McCain.
But in some aspects, Shays has succeeded. He has won the endorsement of the Hartford Courant and the very liberal editorial board of the New York Times. His stance on abortion, along with other morally liberal stances has kept him in a close race with Himes.
‘Shays is a well-known incumbent and a relative moderate who has attracted a lot of independent and Democratic votes, but he can only survive so much – and as Obama’s numbers grow in that district, it is a lot more difficult for him to win,’ Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia said to the Connecticut Post. ‘I think he’s in tough shape.’
Himes has shown that he has the knowledge needed to contribute to the effort to fix the economy, something that Shays may not be the right person to do.
‘The more unease that likely voters feel about the impact of the economy on their households, the more likely they are to support Jim Himes,’ said UConn pollster Christine Kraus. ‘Those who worry a fair amount are pretty evenly split and those who worry little or not at all are more likely to support Christopher Shays. While the presidential campaign slows down, the Shays-Himes battle is still raging and who gets affected will matter to Fairfield University students, whether they realize it or not.
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