When Oscar turns 75 on March 23rd, America will tune in to celebrate one of its favorite pastimes – the movies. We’ll ooh and ahh as the stars walk down the red carpet, secretly hoping to see that fashion faux pas that will keep us wincing for years. We’ll laugh at Steve Martin’s intermittently funny jokes, and roll our eyes as a teary eyed actress exclaims “I’m so shocked!” But in the midst of all of this, let’s not forget the most important question- who will take home Hollywood’s golden boys this year?
BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Who should win: It’s definitely the year of the musical. With 13 nominations, the buzz surrounding Chicago is well deserved. The transition from Broadway stage to screen is dazzling to watch, and the performances by Renee Zellweger, Catherine Zeta Jones, Queen Latifah, and John C. Reilly truly light up the screen. Not to be overlooked, however, is the stunning epic Gangs of New York, this year’s dark horse, as well the darkly engaging dramas The Hours, the adaptation of Michael Cunningham’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel, and the World War II drama The Pianist.
Who will win: It’s a toss-up. Chicago could sweep, but the Academy has a history of honoring movies like The Hours. And both films took home Golden Globes in different categories, so it could be a tight race.
The Pianist is slim possibility, but could ride in on the buzz from Adrien Brody’s nominated performance. Sorry, “Lord of the Rings” fans, but not this year – the Academy will probably wait for “The Return of the King.”
BEST ACTOR OF THE YEAR
Who should win: Lewis. His performance as gang-lord Bill “The Butcher” Cutting is the most dynamic of his career. The audience is drawn into his completely convincing character, which is the driving force of the film. On the other side of the spectrum, Nicholson’s turn as a man pondering his life as he retires is noteworthy, a subtle departure from his normal star-powered roles. Adrien Brody’s performance as Holocaust survivor pianist Wladyslaw Szpilman is allegedly intense as well.
Who will win: Lewis or Nicholson. It’s too soon for Caine to win again, since he was honored in ’99 for “The Cider House Rules.” Cage’s performance as twin brothers in Adaptation is a long shot at best. There’s certainly a buzz for Brody’s performance, but on Oscar night, the statue will belong to one of the veteran actors.
BEST ACTRESS OF THE YEAR
Who should win: This is a difficult category, but probably Kidman for her inspired performance as Virgina Woolfe. On the other hand, Zellweger’s surprising turn as murderess/aspiring singer Roxy Hart was energetic and audience pleasing. Lane’s performance, on the other hand, is overly dramatic and irritating.
Who will win: Kidman, or Zellweger if she rides the wave of nominations for Chicago. Despite some buzz for Moore, the fact that she’s nominated in the Best Supporting Actress category as well might hurt her chances.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who should win: Newman. Earlier this year, “Perdition” owned the Oscar buzz. But in the face of more recent, better films, it fell out of the competition. Newman’s performance as the mob boss with a conscience is compelling enough to keep him in the running, though, surpassing the other nominees in this category.
John C. Reilly, who seems to be everywhere lately, turns in an excellent performance as Roxy Hart’s befuddled husband in “Chicago,” but like his character in the film, his performance is overshadowed by the lead roles. Harris, for his part, also turns a solid performance as the tormented writer dying of AIDS.
And we can’t overlook Walken’s performance in “Catch Me,” which by all accounts stole the show.
Who will win: Almost impossible to say, but to make a guess- Newman. The Academy loves him, and that never hurts. On the other hand, voters might take a more lighthearted approach and go with Cooper for his role as an oddly comical Florida plant dealer in “Adaptation.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who should win: Tough call. Zeta-Jones sets the screen on fire with her portrayal of the sensual singer/murderess Velma Kelly, while in all honesty, her costar Queen Latifah is a better singer than an actress. Bates, Moore and Streep all turn in fine performances, however, with the critical buzz buoying all three.
Who will win: Bates or Zeta-Jones. Moore’s divided nominations will probably hurt her, and Latifah is a complete long shot. Streep could be a contender, though- she’s been nominated 13 times and has two wins under her belt already.
BEST DIRECTOR
Who should win: Scorsese. Thanks to his expert direction, “Gangs” drips with the blood and emotion of 19th century New York from its opening scene. Some may find the ending to be overly sentimental, but it comes at a necessary point in the film.
Scorsese made us wait for this film, but the effort truly pays off. Marshall scores points, though, for tackling the risky transition from stage to screen in “Chicago,” and then pulling it off.
Who will win: Toss-up. If “Chicago” starts a sweep early in the night, Marshall is likely to take it. On the other hand, Scorsese is probably the voter’s favorite. As for Daldry, even if “The Hours” is the Best Picture winner, remember that in the last few years, the best picture-best director link has been shattered. The surprise nods for Polanski and Almodovar might prove to be the upset of the night.
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