The red carpet. Rambling speeches. Billy Crystal. Fashion faux pas. This year, Oscar comes early: next Sunday, Feb. 29 marks the 76th annual Academy Awards. Crystal, Oscar’s real golden boy, returns to host for the eighth time this year, much to the relief of fans of the awards show. He’ll be joined by all the usual big name presenters, including Tom Hanks, Robin Williams, Julia Roberts, and Renee Zelleweger. It might be hard to remember with Joan Rivers screeching about what everyone’s wearing, but the night devoted to Hollywood glitz is really about America’s love affair with the movies. And since there are only a few categories that matter- unless you’re really into Art Direction – here’s a rundown on who will walk home a winner.
BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR
Who should win: “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King”. The trilogy has finally come to a conclusion, and what an ending it was. The third installment was the most thrilling of the epic, a stunning achievement in filmmaking. The Academy has passed on the earlier films in the series, but it’s time to give “Lord of the Rings” its due. A win for ROTK would be a fitting honor for the trilogy as a whole.
Who will win: “Lord of the Rings.” Despite the critical hype for “Lost in Translation,” it’s ultimately too small and artsy of a movie to actually win. It’s visually amazing, and Bill Murray gives the performance of his career, but as a whole, the film doesn’t amount to all that much. “Master and Commander” is the kind of swashbuckling adventure story that doesn’t usually sway the Academy. “Seabiscuit” is the long shot, like the famous horse himself. In addition to pacing problems, the film works so hard to be inspirational that it falls back on clichs, leaving us with a story that seems too good to be true. As for “Mystic River,” it had gritty realism and amazing performances going for it, but the sometimes formulaic mystery plot and implausible coincidences at the end hurt its overall appeal. Anyway you look at it, the Hobbits will win on Oscar night.
BEST ACTRESS OF THE YEAR
Who should win: The kind of risks that Theron took for her role in “Monster,” and the intensity that she brings to the performance, makes her the clear winner. Keaton’s performance was great, but it just doesn’t compare to the bravery of Theron’s.
Who will win: Although Diane Keaton is the sentimental favorite, Charlize Theron will take home the Oscar. It’s not time for Watts yet, although in a few years we may see her back here. “Whale Rider” has such little buzz, critical or otherwise, that it’s unlikely Castle-Hughes has a shot.
BEST ACTOR OF THE YEAR
Who should win: Murray, because it’s simply the performance of his career. “Lost in Translation” wouldn’t be on the best Picture list if it wasn’t for him.
Who will win: The only real contest here is between Sean Penn and Bill Murray (although it was nice of the Academy to honor what is the definitive performance of Johnny Depp’s career, unless you count “21 Jump Street”). Both Penn and Murray give stunning performances, but are such polar opposites that it is almost impossible to choose a victor. However, based on the critical buzz, Murray seems to be the favorite.
OTHER MIRROR PICKS
Best Director: Peter Jackson for “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” (and about time, too). Best Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins for “Mystic River” Best Supporting Actress: Renee Zellweger for “Cold Mountain” (to make up for her loss last year in the Best Actress category) Best Animated Film: “Finding Nemo”
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